We constantly learn more about investing, build disciplined strategies to capture the best of what we've learned, and share our broad findings with other curious investors.
In this piece we analyze an innovation metric, Granted Patents, from a factor investing approach and show that this metric is indicative of both fundamental earnings growth and future stock performance. In combination with capitalized Research and Development expense, a more readily available innovation metric found today, we can further identify high-innovation companies that provide a differentiated source of excess returns and growth. Innovation metrics can aid quantitative Value investors in detecting mispricings caused by overly pessimistic expectations as cheap, high innovation companies show greater earnings resilience while benefiting from future, upward re-pricing.
Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007, leading some to think Value investing is dead. This paper takes a long look through market history and found another extended period from 1926 to 1941 where Growth outperformed Value, and offers a theory for the connection between the two periods and why the underperformance may be episodic.
In this piece, Jesse Livermore introduces a new methodology for measuring the profitability and valuation of corporations. In applying the methodology, he encounters a massive discrepancy in corporate capital allocation. To explain the discrepancy, he attempts to show that reported company earnings are systematically overstated relative to reality. After identifying the likely causes of the overstatement, he explores their implications for individual stock selection and overall stock market valuation.